We live by probability of chances, not by our skill and intelligence.
Yes — to a significant extent, life is shaped by probabilities and chances, not just by our skill and intelligence. But skill still matters.
A useful way to think about it is:
Outcome ≈ Skill × Effort × Opportunity × Luck/Chance
We control skill, preparation, effort, and many of our decisions. But we don’t control everything: where we’re born, whom we happen to meet, timing, economic conditions, unexpected opportunities, illness, accidents, or whether a particular attempt succeeds.
The important distinction is that skill usually doesn’t guarantee an outcome; it changes the probability of an outcome. A highly skilled person can fail because circumstances go against them, while a less-skilled person can occasionally succeed because circumstances line up perfectly.
So perhaps the most accurate statement is:
We don’t control outcomes. We influence their probabilities.
Intelligence and skill are valuable because they can repeatedly move the odds in our favour, even though they can never make the odds 100%.